How Governor of Bay Region was appointed: a bottom-up approach?

Following the inauguration of Somalia’s Federal Permanent Government (SFG) in August 2012, the formation and acceleration of Regional States that was envisioned in the adopted Somali Provisional Constitution has been in process. The leaders of the SFG in an unforeseen manner have paid rounding tour in most of those regions; assessing the social situation and seeking consultation from the stakeholders of the towns they have landed in. Regions like Hiiraan, Gedo, and Bay have had their administrations upgraded by replacing old leaders with new ones. The armed dominant group in the central regions, Ahlusuna Waljama’ was convinced to rally behind the Federal Government and the Puntaland’s phobia of Centralism has at least been cooled down to the low level; if it is not terminated at all. Conversely, it is the Kismayo scenario that gives gloomy picture and its process seems unpredictable and dangerous. The stakeholders of Kismayo are yet to agree the way forward; though the delegation from the SFG led by the Prime Minister came back from Kismayo City on 29^th March without any achievement. However, with the exception of Lower Jubba Region, all other proposals from the regions visited by the delegation of the government have been submitted by the traditional elders and other principal stakeholders. But in Kismayo, politicians, not traditional elders; are leading the process of the Regional arrangements.  Traditional elders, Business people, Diasporas have submitted ideas and suggestions of how to approach the politics in the regions like Bay, Hiiraan, Gedo, and Galgadud. Therefore, they seem quiet and less discontent these days. The central government seems to be exercising impartiality when it comes to the local politics of those cities. For that reason, it is believed that if such measures are consolidated and confirmed by the SFG, then the reconciliation process may gradually lead to level of normality.

Coming to the title of the article, the selection and appointment of Bay region Governor didn’t come as many assume by the sole decision of the Central Federal Government. It rather came through prolonged discussions and consultations made by the locals and the approval of the governor was eventually proceeded by the Digil Mirifle (DM) thirty traditional elders out of the 135 elders who selected the 275 MPs in the Federal Parliament of Somalia back in August 2012. Through the DM elder’s authorization to the Interior Ministry, he was forwarded to the office of the Presidency and ultimately nominated to be the next governor of Bay Region. Even, it is safe to assume that the sudden withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Hudur city got implicated the decision taken by the elders. As it is an open secret, the Ethiopians because of their Somali cronies; were usually pre-informed if any major transformations is expected in the regions they have influence. However, according to an informed source; they were kept in the dark of the decision reached by the Digil Mirifle elders. In consequence, they protested to hold back their military support and promptly abandoned Hudur City.

Nevertheless, it is no surprise to learn that some MPs from the same region carrying different opinions have refuted the decision made by their elders, because it is the Human instinct to disagree. However, due to some discourse on this topic, this could not be translated that there is a discontent among the stakeholders of the region. Even these few MPs were not able to come up with concrete justification for their disagreement on this particular matter. They failed to bring alternative suggestion when they were called to do so by the Speaker of the House of the People.

In this regard, it could be a misleading and a deception to propagate expressions that have no genuine background and to inform the audience that the nomination of Bay Region governor came through coercive measures, or even approached through top-down means.  The actual nomination of Abdi Hoosow on February, 2013 came in the alignment of the Charter of the Federal Republic of Somalia and the government as its core principal upholds, preserved the desire and dignity of the traditional elders which they really deserve.

As a final point, it is the communication channel between the SFG and the legitimate elders in any region that could establish a confident atmosphere between the government and the people, while at the end of the day, these traditional elders would occupy the upper house of the Federal Republic of Somalia that eventually should mark the completion of the Federal system of the Republic.

Abdulkadir Suleiman

Political Analyst

Sabriye04@gmail.com

"Didiinglay dhamaateih"

Kismaayo puzzle: An old wine in a new bottle

The high concentration of creating an autonomous administration in the southernmost regions of Somalia by solely Kenya and its interlocutors had cultivated a new looming future across the country which otherwise those populations could have been expected a relatively calm situation once the ferocity of Alshabaab is dismantled. However, contrary to that aspiration; it came obvious that the liberators of Kismaayo had no faith in consultation with the popularly elected national leaders of Somalia that also dying for the ultimate and sincerely support from both Kenya and those with its Somali cronies lobbying with the creation of a regime exclusively envisioned outside Somalia. This newly created political suspicion is firmly rooted on two existing political cultures in Somalia - Clan Supremacy and Land Expropriation!  

Right from the Italian colonization to the Post-Independent regimes as well as in the anarchy period, these two perspectives have been utilizing by the dominant politicians in the successive governments of Somalia that each administration sought by any means to expel the former tenants in Juba regions as to install a new favorable one with the rely of external power as is indicated to the current scenario. And every administration has actually implemented these two narratives through coercive and violence methods by outlawing the noble concepts of seeking mutually beneficial approaches for the political power and economic distribution of the Middle and Lowe Juba regions. For the Italian part, Governor Carletti in the Lower Juba has seized 10,000 hectors of plantation by forcing its owners to flee with the help of superior firearms. I.M Lewis said in his book of Modern History of Somalia that this land has previously been cultivated by Tuni clan. As a consequence, it is obvious that a degree section of those indigenous subjugated people had fled from their homes reaching out to the corners of Central Africa. Likewise, the military regime cleaned the remaining resilient indigenous populations by adopting far more serious policies that badly affected the sedentary people in the regions of Lower and Middle Jubas and Lower Shabele as well. The regime misappropriated the land of interverine and revrine areas by trans-planting it to over 100,000 displaced people from northern nomads in 1973 -74 on the grounds that the land belongs to no one. In the meantime the government didn’t adopt conceding policies and all the historical inhabitants were gradually misplaced from their swath. In this way the traditional owners of Kismaayo and across those regions were expropriated and minimized to the level of pariah. The land tenure that resisted trying to protect their land were threatened and imprisoned. The Department of Land Use and Irrigation was instrumental for the expropriation of the land. Today, it goes without saying that clans like Bajun and Tuni even can’t dare about putting their agenda on the table of the two Jubas let alone deciding its fate.

By the same token, the warlords in the civil war kept the track on by forming alliances under different banners and invaded the city several times just to control its economic resource. In the game of zero-sum competition no faction did ever succeed to rule the region and all of them ended futile in terms of Human and Capital; in addition to the environmental desertification they inflicted. Even Alshabaab being the most powerful group had eventually lost to these current occupiers. What matters in this brawl is not just how much superior armoires one has and the number of human resource as opposed to the indigenous; but actually who is not seeking to snatch people’s land and not illegally expelling them. Abdi Aynte said in his article of ‘Kismaayo Conundrum(S)’ that Kismaayo is the graveyard of many Somali powers, and expectedly Kenya along with Ras Kamboni militia might likely meet the same consequence if they won’t review their current position.  

In a dramatic move, however, it is safe to assume that Ras Kamboni politicians along with their cronies in Nairobi are in the struggle again to sweep the least remaining populations in those areas, and by their turn to project themselves that they are proper tenants of the city while in fact they hold marginal constituency in the districts of Lower Juba and Middle Juba. As the region is prized for a fertilized land, a relative mild weather, an airport and port facilities; it attracted non-native factional groups that continued to champion the top leadership of the politics and tried to conquer the land tenure against their will. So, today it is ill-fated that Ras Kamboni with the help of Kenya revived this trajectory of clan hatred and land expropriation in Kismayo.   

To sum up, Kenya’s anxiety to a future possibility of border insecurity could be minimized only through establishing effective diplomatic collaboration with the Somali Federal Government not solely its effort of erecting a buffer zone in the region by passing over the central government; and the Somali associates should not digging out a new misfortune in the country.  

Abdulkadir Suleiman
Political Analyst and Researcher




"Didiinglay dhamaateih"

The London Somalia Conference: Expectations and Realities

 

The London plan which was concluded on 23^rd February had met with great expectations: it created euphoria for its participants, despair for its opponents and skepticism for the Somali masses. Prime Minister of Somalia Abdiwali Mohamed Ali optimistically termed the Conference as highly successful and its outcome beyond his expectation. However, for Somalians the event did not pave the way for the resolution of their problems. 

For me as a Somali, this was the 15^th luxurious assembly for the cause of Somalia, a poor country where lawlessness is rampant, and ended in vain. People wonder how calculations made miles away from the place of havoc could match the hard realities we Somalians are faced with. This view is fully supported by a report, made by the Guardian journalist Jamal Osman, which revealed the wide difference of opinion existing between the people of Somalia and the policymakers with a certain mindset. For example, they failed to figure out why al-Shabaab, militarily much stronger than the Somali governments or the attendees at the consultation, was excluded from the scope of the discussion.

Despite facing some setbacks recently, al-Shabaab are still powerful enough to pose a challenge to the national, and regional, security and would not support any initiative that does not address their concerns. Although President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed said that “we are scared of tomorrow”, the US Secretary of State Mrs Hillary Clinton vowed to keep al-Shabab “on the run”.

After all the talk show in London tried to lead Somalia with a weak central government, keep it fragmented and present it as a failed state – I think that this is a major flaw in moving forward. But quite deliberately, this would provide a chance to the western countries to implement their imperialist policies and exploit raw material in the region. Britain’s foreign policy approach to Somalia was the same as ever; Prime Minister David Cameron, the organizer of the meeting, had invited all the existing clan fiefdoms – the Somali government – in Somalia at Lancaster House. But this is no surprise because in the first instance, it was UK which advanced the cause of clan politics in Somalia. Unsurprisingly, the UK intends to continue its colonial policy of divide and rule in Somalia to gain economic advantages. As a young Somali student of international relations in Karachi, Pakistan, for me it is an established and observable fact that politics do not change but administrations do.

Al-Shabaab, with its aggressive behavior, is the main reason of insecurity in the country and is a big obstacle for the economic development of the country and makes it difficult for foreign powers to exploit the resources of the country. This was the main concern that forced the foreign powers to hold this conference. Although the UK’s International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell denied this, the Guardian/Observer revealed that Britain’s involvement in Somalia might be purely economically driven since British officials were secretly conducting a high-stakes negotiations to take the lead in the exploration of oil in Somalia in return for humanitarian and security assistance to the respective autonomies in the country.

Oddly, British Petroleum and Shell,  have expressed an interest in creating jobs in the coastal regions of Somalia yet Shell, which acquired exclusive rights for oil exploration in Puntland prior to Somalia’s descent into chaos in the early 1990s, has said that it does not plan on beginning work there.

However, an Africa Programme paper published by Chatham House in May 2011 mentioned that the current coalition government’s top priority in Africa is to secure access to natural resources and energy security.

For the tribal empowerment, the Foreign Minister of Somaliland – the self-declared independent autonomy in the Northwest region, Mohamed Abdullahi, said that he met with his UK counterpart William Hague on the sidelines of the meeting and they agreed on two important factors: (1) to increase Britain’s humanitarian assistance to Somaliland and (2) that UK government would soon open its office in Hargaisa. But he didn’t further elaborate what form the office would take, a diplomatic or a liaison?

However, these policies of the UK and other western countries could be justified on the ground that the internal clan rivalries, corruption and insincerity of the politicians and government are responsible for this situation. People are helpless to counter this predicament and waiting for true leadership that could get the Somalia out of this mess.

On the other hand, the majority participants of the conference did not show any enthusiasm at all. Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zanawi, the giant of the region, had politely protested that he was not consulted about the agenda of the conference in advance and therefore hinted that its implementation might face severe challenges. Yet an agenda for Somalia was agreed and now it remains to be seen if the seven principles agreed upon are going to be effectively implemented.

The Joint Financial Management Board (JFMB) has arrived with the right time, and would effectively manage the flow of cash in and out of Somalia. It would further prevent the corrupt officials to misuse the income of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and its use for private gains. But despite the good intentions of the London Conference, the revelation by the former head of the Public Finance Management Unit of the TFG Abdirizag Fartag that the TFG received an income of 58 million dollars in 2011 at a time when millions of Somalians starved to death. According to Fartag, only 1 million was spent to social services and the rest went nowhere. It is shameful that such a scandal could be controlled through JFMB mechanisms. The massive contradiction in the final communiqué is that it places Somalia’s future with the country’s people but paradoxically allows non-Somalis to control the government’s purse through the JFMB. This too at a time of extreme famine and drought in the country which might result in as many as 750,000 deaths.

The other positive sign was the respect of Somalia’s political and territorial sovereignty. The London communiqué had encouraged the TFG and Somaliland leaderships to initiate national talks – accordingly we had hoped that they should resolve their differences through dialogue and negotiations. Yet the lack of political will and leadership has been disappointing and the national interest of the Somali people to safeguard their country’s integrity should have been followed with more vigour at the conference.

To overcome the problems of Somalia it is important step that Somali National Forces are strengthened. One of the hurdles in this regard is the arms embargo imposed by the UN Security Council (UNSC). Without the much needed training and supplies of weapons, national forces cannot control the fighting groups and maintain peace in the country. If and when national forces ever take the control of security of the country, then we will have a better chance at the resumption of effective national politics which fostered positive changes and processes based upon the participation of the common people. If peoples’ grievances are not addressed, the process of national reconciliation can never be achieved.

The increase of African Mission (AMISOM) forces in Somalia from 12,000 to 17,731 troops was viewed by the UNSC as insufficient because in the past such steps have simply not worked. Protesting at the situation President of Djibouti Ismail Omer Gele reminded the UNSC at the Conference that the revival of such steps is completely ineffective. African Mission troops cannot be deployed in the rural areas, only a strong national force would be able that – Professor Afyare Elmi emphasized.

Abdulkadir Suleiman

Researcher and Blogger

Sabriye04@gmail.com

"Didiinglay dhamaateih"

Farancis Fukuyama speaks to Gideon Rose about the future of History and his contribution to the International Politics

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Kony 2012

Most African politicians have the same habit to recruit children as combatants. What they care is just how to get the power instead how to save the Human life. On the other hand, great powers have also the same attitude when it comes for self-interest. They do care about their national interest by ignoring about the Human life. So the question is what is the difference between the two sides as each side is committed to succeed on personal ambition? Nothing really at all!

In this short video, you would really notice how the world got changed from the moral duties to greedy world composing of competing wolfs.

"Didiinglay dhamaateih"